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On March 20, 2026, a Carson City District Judge granted the Nevada Gaming Control Board (GCB) a 14‑day temporary restraining order (TRO) prohibiting KalshiEx LLC (Kalshi) from taking bets in Nevada, with a preliminary injunction hearing set for April 3, 2026. Kalshi presents itself as an AI-powered prediction market, but Nevada officials view this as a roundabout means of offering sports betting without state licensure and taxes. The April 3 hearing will likely determine the future of Kalshi’s operations in Nevada and could prompt other states to investigate Kalshi’s – and others’ – licensing status in their jurisdictions.
The GCB alleges in court filings that Kalshi failed to obtain the appropriate license under the Nevada Gaming Control Act and is therefore operating an illegal gambling platform. GCB leadership has stated that Kalshi’s claims of legality in all 50 states are clearly not true and that prediction markets facilitating unlicensed gambling are illegal in Nevada.
Kalshi retorts that it is registered with the federally regulated Commodity Futures Trade Commission (CFTC) which preempts Nevada gaming laws. The judge who ruled on the TRO found the GCB reasonably likely to prevail, concluding on the present record that Kalshi’s event contracts constitute wagers in a sports pool and a percentage game under Nevada law, and that Kalshi is not licensed in Nevada. The judge noted that, at this stage, the weight of authority disfavors federal preemption of Nevada’s gaming laws by the Commodity Exchange Act for sports‑related event contracts. This is the first time Kalshi has been banned from operating by a U.S. state, although the Arizona Attorney General recently filed charges against Kalshi alleging illegal gambling.
In the TRO, the judge emphasized Nevada’s expansive and strict regulation of gaming to promote the public interest, including preventing underage gambling, preserving event integrity, and excluding unsuitable persons. The judge found irreparable harm to Nevada’s regulatory framework if unlicensed activity continues, including, for example, the inability to police insider participation, which is a major concern in the prediction market industry. The TRO also surveyed various states’ stances on CFTC preemption of state oversight and found a split amongst the jurisdictions, but stated that the balance weighs against federal preemption in this context. For now, Nevada is not preempted from enforcing its laws against Kalshi, although this fight could continue for several years across federal and state forums, potentially even in Congress.
This ruling is the result of a months-long battle between Kalshi and the GCB. The GCB initially issued a cease and desist letter to Kalshi on March 4, 2025. Kalshi responded by filing a federal lawsuit on April 9, 2025, and successfully obtained an injunction from the court. The court eventually lifted the injunction in November 2025. Kalshi’s appeal of that decision to the Ninth Circuit was denied in February, which allowed Nevada to file its lawsuit to permanently enjoin Kalshi from operating in Nevada without a license. Kalshi’s emergency motion to block Nevada from enforcing its gaming regulations was denied as well. Nevada’s lawsuit asserts that Kalshi should be regulated as gambling under state law and notes the Ninth Circuit action paved the way for the state to bar Kalshi’s sports contracts.
If Nevada ultimately confirms that states can regulate prediction markets as gambling, other jurisdictions may also move quickly — creating a fast‑changing, high‑stakes regulatory landscape. Companies in this space will need counsel who understand both state‑level gaming enforcement and federal commodities regulation.
The Lewis Brisbois Government Investigations & White Collar Defense team, together with our Artificial Intelligence Task Force, is uniquely positioned to guide clients through these emerging risks, navigate multistate inquiries, and build compliance structures before regulators come calling.
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