South Africa's Climate Change Framework: A New Operating Reality For Mining

South Africa's Climate Change Act, 2024, together with its supporting regulations, marks a fundamental shift in the legal landscape for high‑emitting sectors and mining is directly in scope. This Q&A unpacks what the new framework means in practice, why mining companies need to prepare now, and how the industry can navigate the intersecting demands of emissions reduction, regulatory compliance and the country's Just Transition commitments.

SA's first legally binding framework for greenhouse gas mitigation has also been implemented – why should mining companies begin preparing for this now and what areas (such as modelling emissions, and building internal governance structures) should they focus on first?

The short answer is that both are critical.
Emissions modelling and the establishment of robust internal governance structures should be prioritised by mining companies.

This requirement is already embedded in South African law. The Regulations Regarding Air Despersion Modelling (GNR.533 of 11 July 2014), promulgated under section 53(f) of the National Environmental Management: Air Quality Act, 2004, as amended ("NEMAQA") (the Code of Practice for Air Dispersion Modelling) recommend that mining companies and other entities required to prepare air quality management plans undertake emissions modelling through a careful and structured process.

This process includes internal review, quality assurance and quality control, all of which necessitate the development of sound internal governace frameworks.

Mining companies should also be preparing for life under the new framework because the Climate Change Act, 2024 ("Climate Change Act") establishes a national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory in section 24, requires government to set sectoral emissions targets in section 25 and introduces carbon budgets and mandatory greenhouse gas mitigation plans on high-emitting industries such as mining.

The enforcement architecture embedded in the Climate Change Act is clear and significant for the mining sector. Failure to submit a greenhouse gas mitigation plan is a criminal offence under section 35, punishable, on first conviction, by a fine of up to ZAR5 million or imprisonment for up to five years and on a subsequent conviction, by a fine of up to ZAR10 million or imprisonment for up to ten years (or both).

In addition, regulations made under section 30(3) may create further offences punishable on the penalty regime in section 49B(2) of the National Environmental Management Act, 1998. Environmental management inspectors may issue compliance notices under section 31L and directors may face personal liability under section 34(7) where they fail to take reasonable steps to prevent offences.

Continuity is also ensured: The Declaration of Greenhouse Gases as Priority Air Pollutants, the National Pollution Prevention Plans Regulations and the National Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting Regulations promulgated under NEMAQA, continue to apply by virtue of section 37 of the Climate Change Act. Approved pollution prevention plans are deemed to be mitigation plans for the first carbon budget cycle under section 27(5). Where a mining company has already submitted a pollution prevention plan under NEMAQA, that dataset should be used as the starting point, as those plans are deemed mitigation plans for the first carbon budget cycle.

The Draft National Greenhouse Gas Carbon Budget and Mitigation Plan Regulations were published for comment earlier this year. The public consultation window was open from 1 August to 30 September 2025.

Mining companies must develop mitigation plans that reduce emissions within their allocated carbon budgets. Carbon budgets are allocated with reference to best available science, socio-economic impacts and practicable environmental options under section 27(2). To secure approval of mitigation plans under section 27(4), companies should build a bankable abatement portfolio such as ventilation air methane oxidation, coal mine methane capture and utilisation, diesel displacement, electrification, process efficiency improvements and on‑site renewables, sequenced against realistic production profiles.

Companies must also establish internal controls to meet the annual reporting and corrective action obligations in section 27(6) and link abatement to capital allocation, mine planning and procurement. In parallel, they should engage early on sectoral emissions targets under section 25 and on listed activities and thresholds under section 26. However, it is important note that these sectoral emissions targets have yet to be determined. Mining companies must also factor in the interaction with the Carbon Tax Act, 2019, including the likelihood of higher effective tax rates where emissions exceed allocated budgets once the carbon budget regulations take effect.

With mining identified as a priority sector, what does this mean for mining in light of the Act establishing a national emissions trajectory and sectoral emission targets?

As a priority sector, mining will be governed by the full cascade of obligations under the Climate Change Act. Ministers responsible for the various sectors must convert emissions targets into action by adopting policies and measures, integrating them into sector plans and reporting annually to the Presidency under section 25(6), section 25(11) and section 25(12). This must ensure alignment with the national emissions trajectory and establish clear short-, medium- and long‑term goals, as required by section 25(4).

For mining companies, carbon budgets will be allocated regardless of whether a mine is new or long‑established. The Minister must publish a list of activities and carbon dioxide‑equivalent thresholds covering all identified greenhouse gases ("GHGs") under section 26.

This notice applies to both existing and new activities in terms of section 26(3)(a). Once listed and above the relevant threshold, companies must operate within multi‑period carbon budgets, implement approved mitigation plans and report annually to the Minister under sections 27(3) to 27(6). This includes describing corrective measures where reporting indicates that a budget may be exceeded, as required by section 27(6)(e).

Methane and other fugitive emissions are particularly significant for mining, especially coal mining, as the Minister may list and update both greenhouse gases and emitting activities under section 26, thereby tightening expectations over time. The continued legal effect of the greenhouse gas reporting regime and pollution prevention plan requirements under section 37 gives companies a head start as those plans are deemed mitigation plans for the first carbon budget cycle under section 27(5).

At the same time, the national emissions trajectory must be reviewed at least every five years under section 24(4) and carbon budgets are maintained across successive five‑year periods and revised if national emissions rise above South Africa's commitments, in accordance with sections 27(3) and 27(8). Together with a strengthened National Greenhouse Gas Inventory under section 29, this points to progressive regulatory tightening, making early, asset‑level planning and methane abatement key differentiators for the mining sector.

Coal has been classified a critical mineral under South Africa's Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy. How can this classification be balanced alongside the Just Transition Framework, which seeks to phase out fossil fuels by 2050?

As a starting point, it is important to note that criticality is dependent on a country's specific needs and priorities. . In South Africa's case, a total of 74% of electricity generation is derived from coal, meaning that an immediate abandonment of the coal-based energy is not feasible. The Integrated Resources Plan 2025 ("IRP 2025") confirms that coal will remain part of the energy mix beyond 2030. However, the plan characterises the period from 2031 to 2040 as a transition period, with significant expected shutdowns of coal-fired power stations and no new coal capacity proposed, thereby reducing coal's share in the energy mix.

In addition, IRP 2025 includes a policy decision to support a demonstration plant for cleaner coal technologies by 2030, noting that successful outcomes "may lead to operating coal-fired stations beyond the 50-year life of plant" , effectively supporting limited life extensions where emissions can be significantly reduced.

A balance can be struck between the objectives of the Just Transition Framework and the need to ensure continued energy security for South African industries and households. A pathway to achieving this balance includes the following:

• Treating coal's critical designation as transitional and strictly time‑bound, recognising its role in short‑ and medium-term energy security and grid stability while renewable generation, storage and transmission capacity continue to scale as envisaged in IRP 2025.
• Pivoting to secondary value from coal by products, including innotation to extract critical minerals such as rare earth elements and vanadium from coal ash and tailings, subject to stringent environmental and water controls. This approach extends economic value without expanding combustion-led emissions.
• Reskilling coal-dependent communities, by leveraging Just Transition funding to train and reskill workers and communities so that they can thrive economically as depencence on fossil fuels is phased out.

In light of this paradox, do we need clearer regulation around coal's role in short-term energy security, innovations such as the extraction of ritical minerals from coal ash and the use of Just Transition funding to reskill and diversify coal-dependent communities?

Yes. Given coal's critical classification and the tension this creates in the context of the Just Transition, clearly integrated regulatory instruments are required. This includes, in particular:

• Providing environmental permitting guidance specific to ash re mining and critical mineral recovery, including clarity on waste reclassification, water use licensing, air quality standards and residue management, while fast tracking pilot projects subject to rigorous safeguards and codifying product stewardship requirements for recovered critical minerals in law.
• Repurposing coal assets as clean energy hubs, by standardising processes to convert decommissioned power stations into renewable energy and storage sites, leveraging existing grid infrastructure and enabling community and worker equity participation.

According to the Just Energy Transition Framework, it is estimated that South Africa will require at least USD250 billion over the next three decades to transform its energy system, with at least USD10 billion allocated to "climate justice outcomes" to support workers and communities through the transition. It is therefore imperative that Just Transition funding be operationalised for coal-dependent regions. This can be achieved by funding worker retraining and placement programmes, building SME value chains around new energy and remediation activities, financing municipal renewable energy transitions and co-funding regional renewable, storage, grid and industrial projects. Efforts must also be made to prioritise governance capacity in coal-dependent municipalities and ensure transparent social impact measurement.

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